KNMI: Tropical cyclone bulletin 8- Jose

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 8

WARNING MESSAGE NO. 3

Date: Friday September 08, 2017 Time: 22:56 local time

Watches/warnings:

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Saba and St Eustatius for category 4 Hurricane Jose. At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close or just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Effect on local conditions

Winds:

On Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening there is around 40-50% risk of tropical-storm force winds (exceeding 8 Bft, 34 kt (>62 km/h)), and a negligible risk (less than 5%) of hurricane force winds (exceeding 12 Bft, 64 kt (>120 km/h)), associated with Hurricane Jose, affecting Saba and St Eustatius. Winds are expected to turn to northeast at Saturday morning and turn to west in the afternoon and south in the evening. Sunday night the wind will decrease significantly and turn to a southeasterly direction.

Seas:

On Saturday and Sunday, consensus forecast of wave height is 8-12 ft with a 30% risk of 12 to 16 ft associated with Hurricane Jose. Main attribution of the waves is due to swell. Swell is coming from the northeast, later on Sunday possibly from a northwesterly direction.

Rainfall:

On Saturday and Sunday forecast of precipitation is 0,5-2 inch of rain with a small risk (around 10%) risk for around 2 to 3 inches of rain due to Hurricane Jose.

Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.

Positions for Hurricane Jose:
Fri Sep 08 23:00 AST (03:00 UTC) 16,9N 59,3W Cat 4 Hurricane       427 km (265 miles) ESE of Saba
Sat Sep 09 08:00 AST (12:00 UTC) 17,8N 60,8W Cat 4 Hurricane      260 km (162 miles) E of Saba
Sat Sep 09 20:00 AST (00:00 UTC) 19,1N 62,8W Cat 4 Hurricane      171 km (106 miles) NNE of Saba
Sun Sep 10 08:00 AST (12:00 UTC) 20,7N 64,8W Cat 3 Hurricane     379 km (236 miles) NNW of Saba
Sun Sep 10 20:00 AST (00:00 UTC) 22,4N 66,8W Cat 3 Hurricane     648 km (403 miles) WNW of Saba
Mon Sep 11 20:00 AST (00:00 UTC) 25,3N 68,8W Cat 2 Hurricane  1029 km (639 miles) WNW of Saba
Tue Sep 12 20:00 AST (00:00 UTC) 26,8N 68,0W Cat 2 Hurricane   1131 km (703 miles) NNW of Saba
Wed Sep 13 20:00 AST (00:00 UTC) 27,7N 66,3W Cat 1 Hurricane   1164 km (723 miles) NNW of Saba

Definitions:

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63) knots are expected in specified areas in 36 hours of less.

Next bulletin: Saturday September 09, 2017, 04:56 local time

Voor meer informatie, ga naar http://knmidc.org .

For a global picture of the winds go to embed.windy.com