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TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 16
Date: Wednesday September 06, 2017 Time: 23:13 local time
Watches/warnings:
*** NOTE: This Tropical Cyclone Bulletin is both an Advisory Message for Hurricane Irma and an Information Message for Hurricane Jose.
A Tropical Storm Watch or Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for Jose on Thursday.
*** Powerful Category 5 Hurricane Irma is moving further away from the local islands. On Wednesday at 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Irma was located just north of Puerto Rico, near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. As Irma is moving further away from the islands now, the associated winds will pose no further threat to the islands.
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Category 1 Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.5 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two days. Jose is expected to proceed in a northwesterly direction, passing northeast of, or just over the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.
Effect on local conditions
Winds:
Winds are south to southeast 6 Bft. During Thursday, winds back to east to southeast and gradually decrease to 4 Bft. On Friday, winds will gradually back to east tot northeast, 4 Bft. On Saturday, winds are expected to increase to 5-6 Bft and gradually become northerly. During Sunday, winds are expected to become westerly, then southerly and ultimately southeasterly on Monday. Later on Saturday and early on Sunday, there is a risk (30-40%) of tropical-storm force winds, and a very small risk (5-10%) of hurricane force winds, associated with Hurricane Jose, affecting Saba and St Eustatius.
Seas:
Wave height initially 7-10 ft, predominantly from southerly directions. Wave height will decrease to 5-7 ft on Thursday morning, later on Thursday and on Friday further decreasing to 3-6 ft. Till Friday morning there is a small risk of westerly swells of 3-5 ft. On Saturday and Sunday, there is a moderate risk of rough seas associated with Hurricane Jose.
Rainfall:
Through Thursday thundery showers. Average expected rain amounts until Thursday evening 1-2 inches, with small (10-20%) probabilities for up to 3-5 inches. On Friday, a few showers are still possible. Later on Saturday and on Sunday, increased shower and thunderstorm activity is expected with around 1 inch of precipitation, with a small risk of 2-4 inches.
Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.
Center’s latest and forecast positions:
Positions for Hurricane IRMA:
Wed Sep 06 23:00 lt 19.4N 66.8W Major Hurricane 424 km (263 miles) west-northwest of Saba
Thu Sep 07 20:00 lt 21.3N 71.7W Major Hurricane 975 km (606 miles) west-northwest of Saba
Fri Sep 08 20:00 lt 22.7N 76.3W Major Hurricane 1473 km (915 miles) west-northwest of Saba
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Positions for Hurricane JOSE:
Wed Sep 06 23:00 lt 14.4N 47.5W Hurricane 1718 km (1068 miles) east-southeast of Saba
Thu Sep 07 20:00 lt 15.5N 53.0W Hurricane 1116 km (693 miles) east-southeast of Saba
Fri Sep 08 20:00 lt 16.8N 58.2W Major Hurricane 543 km (337 miles) east of Saba
Sat Sep 09 20:00 lt 19.3N 62.0W Hurricane 227 km (141 miles) north-northeast of Saba
Sun Sep 10 20:00 lt 22.4N 65.8W Hurricane 594 km (369 miles) north-northwest of Saba
Mon Sep 11 20:00 lt 25.9N 68.4W Major Tropical Storm 1062 km (660 miles) north-northwest of Saba
Definitions:
ADVISORY BULLETIN: Heavy rainfall and or rough sea conditions are expected in the specific areas. No Tropical Storm or hurricane is expected
Next bulletin: Thursday September 07, 2017, 05:13 local time
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