KNMI: TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 8 – Maria

Listen to the address of the Lieutenant Governor, Jonathan Johnson, to the Saba residents:

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 8

WARNING MESSAGE NO. 3

Date: Monday September 18, 2017 Time: 06:12 local time

Watches/warnings:

A Tropical storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for Hurricane Maria. At 05:00 AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.5 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight and will pass approx 100 km south of the islands. Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maria is expected to become a major hurricane as it moves through the Leeward Islands.

Effect on local conditions

Winds:

Tropical storm force (8 Bft, 39 mph, 62 km/h) winds are expected from Tuesday 02:00 AST with an increasing probability up to 95% for TS wind conditions in the period until Wednesday afternoon. Probability for hurricane force winds (74 mph, 118 km/h or more) is 30-35% in the aforementioned period. Most likely highest wind speed is approximately 50-55 mph, (80-90 km/h) on Tuesday between 14:00 and 24:00 AST.

Seas:

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. Swells generated by Maria are already affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

During Tuesday increasing to 15-20 ft from the afternoon. Wave direction initially from the E. After passing of the storm from S, later SW. After

Wednesday 3 ft of swell from a W-ly direction is expected to last at least until Friday.

Rainfall:

Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.

Center’s latest and forecast positions:

SABA:
Till Sat Sep 23 02:00 AST, the nearest position is estimated at:
Tue Sep 19 17:00 AST 16.8N 63.8W Category 4 Hurricane 107 km (67 mi) SSW of Saba

Mon Sep 18 05:00 AST 14.6N 59.5W Category 1 Hurricane 522 km (325 mi) SE of Saba
Mon Sep 18 14:00 AST 15.1N 60.6W Category 2 Hurricane 398 km (247 mi) SE of Saba
Tue Sep 19 02:00 AST 15.8N 62.0W Category 3 Hurricane   243 km (151 mi) SSE of Saba
Tue Sep 19 14:00 AST 16.6N 63.4W Category 4 Hurricane   116 km (72 mi) S of Saba
Wed Sep 20 02:00 AST 17.4N 64.8W Category 4 Hurricane 168 km (104 mi) W of Saba
Thu Sep 21 02:00 AST 19.0N 67.7W Category 4 Hurricane  495 km (308 mi) WNW of Saba
Fri Sep 22 02:00 AST 21.0N 70.4W Category 3 Hurricane    840 km (522 mi) WNW of Saba
Sat Sep 23 02:00 AST 23.5N 72.0W Category 3 Hurricane 1121 km (697 mi) NW of Saba

Definitions:

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63) knots are expected in specified areas in 36 hours of less.

Next bulletin: Monday September 18, 2017, 12:12 local time

Voor meer informatie, ga naar http://knmidc.org .

The difference between a Category 1 and Category 5 hurrycane