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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 1
INFORMATION MESSAGE NO. 1
Date: Tuesday September 17, 2019 Time: 11:42 local time
Key Messages / Watches and warnings:
-Tropical depression Ten (1250 mi ESE of Saba/Statia) will develop and is expected to move as a Hurricane NNE of the islands at Friday night (21-22 PM AST).
-There is a 30-40% risk for Tropical Storm conditions from (earliest) Friday late in the afternoon.
-Total rainfall amounts of 1-2, possibly 3-4 inches, are expected.
Effect on local conditions
Winds:
On Friday the easterly winds are moderate. There is a risk the winds will turn northwest, later west during the afternoon and night and increase to strong (6 Bft). There is a 30-40% risk for Tropical Storm conditions earliest starting at Friday late in the afternoon. The risk for Hurricane conditions is less than 10% at the moment.
Seas:
Waves 4-6 ft, Friday afternoon and night increasing 6-8 ft. In Tropical Storm conditions waves around 10-12 ft are possible.
Rainfall:
Friday increasing risk (thundery) showers, ongoing on Saturday. Total amount of precipitation 1-2 inches, possibly 3-4.
Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.
Center’s latest and forecast positions:
SABA:
Till Sun Sep 22 08:00 AST, the nearest position is estimated at:
Fri Sep 20 22:00 AST 19.4N 62.4W Category 1 Hurricane 212 km (132 mi) NNE of Saba
Tue Sep 17 11:00 AST 12.9N 44.9W Tropical Depression 2035 km (1264 mi) ESE of Saba
Tue Sep 17 20:00 AST 13.8N 46.1W Tropical Storm 1882 km (1169 mi) ESE of Saba
Wed Sep 18 08:00 AST 14.7N 47.9W Tropical Storm 1669 km (1037 mi) E of Saba
Wed Sep 18 20:00 AST 15.5N 50.2W Tropical Storm 1409 km (876 mi) E of Saba
Thu Sep 19 08:00 AST 16.3N 52.9W Severe Tropical Storm 1109 km (689 mi) E of Saba
Fri Sep 20 08:00 AST 18.2N 59.2W Category 1 Hurricane 432 km (268 mi) E of Saba
Sat Sep 21 08:00 AST 20.2N 64.7W Category 1 Hurricane 324 km (202 mi) NNW of Saba
Sun Sep 22 08:00 AST 22.5N 69.0W Category 1 Hurricane 809 km (503 mi) NW of Saba
Definitions:
TROPICAL STORM INFORMATION BULLETIN: An information bulletin for possible tropical storm conditions, including sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63 knots) are possible in specified areas in 72 hours or less.
Next bulletin: Tuesday September 17, 2019, 23:42 local time
For more info check out http://knmidc.org .
KNMI